Here are quarterly statistics for the UK Government’s Mortgage Guarantee Scheme as published by HM Treasury, starting with Quarter 1 2025, drawn from official data releases.
With the UK Government transitioning to a permanent Mortgage Guarantee Scheme from July 2025, official statistical reporting begins in Quarter 1 2025, offering a transparent view of its usage, beneficiaries, and impact. These quarterly updates- prepared by HM Treasury- track mortgage completions, borrower characteristics, property profiles, guarantees issued, and regional penetration. Here’s a full walkthrough of what Q1 data reveals and why it matters.
Quarterly Report for Q1 2025
Overview of the Release
In late May 2025, HM Treasury issued its first official statistics bulletin covering the government’s Mortgage Guarantee Scheme through to 31 December 2024, anticipating integrations with the newly permanent scheme beginning Q1 2025.
The report includes:
- Total number and value of completions
- Aggregate value of government guarantees
- Breakdown by borrower income, property price bands, and UK region
These statistics are drawn from a nationwide sample of participating lenders.
Mortgage Completions and Values
- The report captures completions between April 2021 and December 2024, with Q1 2025 statistics expected soon.
- Aggregate loan value, property values, and guarantee commitments are tabulated, though Q1 2025 numbers will reflect the transition to a permanent scheme.
People Also Read: Permanent Mortgage Guarantee Scheme Eligibility
Borrower Profiles
- Data offers insight into household incomes, deposit sizes, and the proportion of first-time buyers versus home movers.
Property Characteristics
- Properties are classified by price bands- e.g. proportion under £250K, £400K or above.
- Geographic distribution highlights where scheme-supported purchases occurred, region-by-region.
Government Exposure
- The total contingent liability cap (e.g. £3.2 billion) is tracked alongside actual guarantees issued.
While Q1 2025-specific numbers have not fully appeared as of May 2025, the baseline release offers a detailed framework for upcoming quarters.
Broader Mortgage Market Trends in Q1 2025
Although not exclusive to the Guarantee Scheme, Bank of England figures offer valuable context for general mortgage activity:
- Gross mortgage lending rose 12.8% quarter‑on‑quarter to £77.6 billion, the highest since late 2022.
- Loans with LTV ratios over 90% reached 6.7%, the highest level since 2008; over‑95% LTV stayed steady at 0.3%.
- Lending to first‑time buyers accounted for 31.4% of owner‑occupation house purchase loans- the highest share since data began in 2007.
- High LTI (loan‑to‑income) lending comprised 45.2% of total advances, slightly down from the previous quarter.
These broader patterns underpin the likely trajectory of scheme activity, given its focus on high LTV lending to first‑time buyers.
Upcoming Quarters Expectations
Starting with Quarter 1 2025, Treasury releases will offer:
- Quarter-by-quarter breakdown of Mortgage Guarantee completions and values
- Borrower income bands and deposit sizes
- Regional updates showing takeup across England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland
- Utilisation of guarantee capacity, helping to assess future funding needs
- Comparisons over time, helpful in assessing the permanent scheme’s impact
Importance of Data
- Transparency: Citizens and policymakers gain early insight into the scheme’s scale and demographic reach.
- Evaluation: Patterns in borrower profiles, location, and property value inform whether the scheme is supporting intended groups.
- Financial oversight: Tracking guarantee usage helps ensure the scheme remains within the government’s risk exposure limits.
Quarterly statistics from HM Treasury offer vital, data‑driven insight into how the Mortgage Guarantee Scheme is performing—starting with Q1 2025. Although the initial release covers pre‑existing scheme data up to December 2024, it establishes a baseline. Future reports—published every three months—will deliver a clearer picture of:
- mortgage completions backed by government guarantees,
- the demographic and regional profile of borrowers,
- compliance with scheme limits,
- and overall scheme value usage.
These quarterly updates not only support accountability but also shape evidence-based enhancements as the scheme enters its permanent phase.
Source:
- https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/6836d6199411f0341f32367d/Q4_2024_MGS_Quarterly_Statistical_Report_May_2025.pdf
- https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/5a803e0f40f0b62305b8a03e/H2B_MG_Stats_Sept_15.pdf
