Yet, the COLA calculation hinges on a specific inflation measure: the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W). More precisely, the SSA compares the average CPI-W for July through September of one year to the same span in the prior year. Thus, the September inflation report is the last and decisive piece of the puzzle.
Find analysis below with practical insights to understand both the mechanics and implications.
Why the Inflation Report Matters for Social Security COLA
Each autumn, millions of Social Security beneficiaries await one key figure more anxiously than the stock market: the Cost-of-Living Adjustment (COLA). After all, this adjustment determines how much monthly benefits increase to keep pace with inflation.
Any delay, or even question, around publishing the CPI report directly affects the COLA announcement timeline.
The Shutdown Fallout: Can We Still Get the CPI Report?
In early October 2025, the U.S. government entered a partial shutdown when funding lapsed. As a result, many federal agencies, including the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), scaled back or suspended operations. Because BLS is responsible for producing the CPI data, observers worried the COLA calculation could be derailed.
However, in a move that underscores how critical the COLA process is, the BLS announced it will still publish the September CPI report on October 24, 2025, despite the shutdown.
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Why the exception? Because the Social Security Act requires the COLA to be announced by November 1, and without the CPI data, that deadline could not be met. The BLS specifically prioritized recalling furloughed staff to compile and release the report.
Thus, although other economic reports (e.g. employment figures) are delayed during the shutdown, the CPI release is being given a “fast track” because of its legal and financial importance.
What This Means for the 2026 COLA
Because the CPI report is being preserved despite the funding impasse, beneficiaries can expect the COLA process to proceed, though possibly with tightened processing windows:
- The official COLA announcement will likely follow shortly after the October 24 CPI release, still aiming for the November 1 statutory deadline.
- Analysts and senior advocacy groups (e.g. the Senior Citizens League) are estimating a 2.7% COLA for 2026, slightly higher than the 2025 increase of 2.5%.
- For the average beneficiary, a 2.7% raise translates into roughly $54 more per month, raising the average monthly benefit to $2,062 (from $2,008).
Still, those are projections, not guarantees. The actual COLA depends on how much the CPI rises in Q3 2025 compared to Q3 2024.
People Also Read: Social Security 2026 COLA Forecast
Potential Risks and Delays, What to Watch For
Even though the BLS is making a push to release the CPI, several bottlenecks and uncertainties could complicate the process:
- Processing & Quality Control Delays: Even with staff recalled, analyzing, validating, and finalizing data is not instantaneous. Minor corrections or reviews could push back the timeline slightly.
- Shutdown Extensions: If the shutdown drags on or deepens, further disruptions might occur in downstream SSA processing, public communication, or benefit systems.
- Backlogs in SSA Systems: SSA offices and customer support may experience staffing or resource constraints, making it harder for beneficiaries to get timely answers.
- Market & Policy Responses: Because the CPI feeds into Federal Reserve decisions, delays or surprises in inflation data can ripple through markets, interest rates, and policy expectations, indirectly affecting retirees’ investment incomes or cost pressures.
- COLA Erosion in Practice: Even when a COLA is granted, it does not guarantee increased purchasing power. Rising Medicare premiums, healthcare inflation, or housing costs could eat into the effective gain. Too often, beneficiaries see only a smaller net lift rather than the full headline percentage.
What You Can Do as a Beneficiary or Future Recipient
Given the high stakes and occasional unpredictability, here are actionable steps you can take:
- Stay tuned to official sources: Monitor the BLS, SSA, and trusted media for the October 24 CPI release and the follow-up COLA announcement.
- Adjust your expectations: Recognize that delays of a few days or even a week in processing are possible, especially under federal shutdown stress.
- Re-visit your budget early: Once the new COLA is announced, draft revised monthly-amount and net-gain estimates (subtract expected Medicare premiums, taxes, etc.).
- Guard against shocks: Don’t plan big expenditures or income changes until the COLA is officially confirmed and your benefit amount is posted.
- Keep an eye on legislation: Sometimes, Congress steps in during shutdowns to pass targeted legislation or funding measures restoring critical operations, that may include measures affecting Social Security or COLA timing.
- Consider inflation exposure elsewhere: Since the CPI measures general inflation, but your personal inflation might differ (especially in health care, housing, or energy), hedge accordingly (e.g. maintain buffers, revisit insurance or investment strategies).
The 2026 Social Security COLA depends squarely on the upcoming CPI release, and despite a federal shutdown, the BLS is moving ahead to publish the key inflation data. Because that data is legally necessary for Social Security’s benefit raise, it has been prioritized even amidst broader agency suspensions.
However, delays in processing, administrative strain, and external economic pressures all pose risks to how smoothly the COLA unfolds on the ground. In light of that, staying informed, budgeting cautiously, and preparing for modest lags are wise.
While Social Security checks are unlikely to stop during a shutdown, the path from inflation to your next check may be a bit bumpier this year.
